The top-two race in the AFL is wide open, with Sydney's sudden slide opening up the race for the top two. The Swans' three losses from their past four games have created a true race for second spot, though the Swans are still favoured due to a relatively easy run home and a strong percentage. The Western Bulldogs are almost locked into the finals, given they've got 11 wins and Richmond next week. The Giants' awful loss to the Bombers means St Kilda is now projected to make the top ten, with the best chance of reaching that magical 12-win mark. The Crows did themselves a huge favour by upsetting Sydney on Friday night, massively increasing their chances of making the top four. The Demons are still a chance of finishing second, though it's not super likely. The Cats' path to the top four looks extremely narrow, with Adelaide beating Sydney and Hawthorn winning their last five. The Lions and Hawks were in a similar situation, needing to take care of business against lowly sides after watching Sydney vs Adelaide with interest. The Western Bulldogs are definitely good enough to beat at least one of Richmond, North Melbourne or Carlton. The Magpies' post-bye period was always going to be split in two - the easy bit and the hard bit, which starts this Thursday night in Adelaide. The Giants are now the least predictable team in footy history, somehow beating Fremantle and Brisbane yet losing to Essendon and West Coast. The light at the end of the tunnel has definitely dimmed for Carlton, but the Bombers' stunning upset of the Giants kept it visible. The Kangaroos will probably still need to win four more games to make the wildcard, due to their percentage, which seems pretty implausible. If they win all five of their remaining games, they would have a pretty good chance of playing finals. The Suns would be very surprised if they win four of their remaining games, never mind five. The Eagles are the least likely to win another game, but have a clear percentage edge and should be favoured for 17th. The Bombers are 18th because they're less likely to win another game, but have a clear percentage edge and should be favoured for 17th. The Dockers can produce the seventh-best season in V/AFL history by winning their five remaining games, though the odds are they will drop one more game.
